In the modern landscape of high achievement, we are witnessing a strange psychological paradox. While the “Dunning-Kruger Effect” famously explains why incompetent people overestimate their abilities, the opposite is rarely discussed: the tendency for highly talented individuals to feel like they are standing still while they are actually accelerating. Understanding why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory is critical for anyone navigating a high-stakes career or an entrepreneurial journey.
At its core, this underestimation is a “visibility problem.” When you are the one doing the heavy lifting, you see the sweat, the mistakes, and the “boring” middle. You don’t see the compounding interest of your skills. Here is a deep dive into the five psychological and systemic reasons for this “Competence Fog.”
1. The Reverse Dunning-Kruger Effect and the "Curse of Ease"
The first reason why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory is what psychologists call the “false consensus effect.” Because high achievers find certain complex tasks easy—whether it’s strategic planning, coding, or empathetic leadership—they assume those tasks are easy for everyone.
When you undervalue your “unique ability,” you undervalue your market worth. You might think, “I only spent twenty minutes on this proposal, so it can’t be that valuable,” forgetting that it took you ten years of experience to be able to do it in twenty minutes. This creates a mental disconnect where you feel your progress is flat because you aren’t “struggling” in the way you think a high-trajectory path should feel.
2. The Exponential Nature of Invisible Growth
Most professionals think of progress as a linear 45-degree angle. In reality, high-level success follows an exponential curve. This “latent potential” phase is a major reason why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory.
In the early and middle stages of the exponential curve, the line looks flat. If you improve 1% every day, you don’t see much change between day 10 and day 20. However, the difference between day 300 and day 310 is massive. Capable people are often deep in the “trench of compounding,” where they are acquiring the rare skills that will eventually lead to a vertical surge. Because they haven’t hit the “inflection point” yet, they assume their trajectory is lower than it actually is.
3. The Expertise Paradox: Expanding Your Horizon of Ignorance
As you become more capable, your “circle of competence” grows. However, as that circle grows, so does its “circumference of contact” with the unknown. The more you know, the more you realize how much you don’t know.
This is a primary driver of why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory. A novice feels like an expert because they don’t know enough to see the gaps. A true expert feels like a student because they can see the vast peaks they haven’t climbed yet. They mistake this healthy intellectual humility for a lack of professional momentum.
4. Comparison to the "Digital Mirage"
We live in an age of curated excellence. When a capable person looks at their peers on social media, they are comparing their “behind-the-scenes” footage to everyone else’s “highlight reel.”
This creates a distorted baseline. If you aren’t achieving “overnight success” (which is almost always a myth), you feel like your trajectory is lagging. Understanding why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory requires a decoupling from the “Digital Mirage.” True trajectory is about your growth relative to your past self, not relative to a filtered version of someone else’s present.
5. Living in "The Gap" vs. "The Gain"
Strategic Coach founder Dan Sullivan identifies a mental habit common among high achievers: living in “The Gap.” This is the space between where you are and your ideal future. Because the ideal is a moving target that recedes as you approach it, you feel like you are never making progress.
To solve the mystery of why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory, one must practice looking back at “The Gain”—the distance traveled from the starting point. When you measure yourself against the person you were three years ago, the upward trajectory becomes undeniable. Capable people often forget to perform this “rear-view audit,” leading to a permanent sense of being “behind.”
6. The Vedic Perspective: Sva-Dharma and Detached Action
At Radio Platonic, we often look to ancient wisdom to solve modern problems. The Vedic concept of Sva-Dharma (individual duty) suggests that your trajectory is uniquely yours. When you focus on Nishkama Karma (action without attachment to the fruit), you stop obsessing over the “slope” of your career and start focusing on the “depth” of your work.
Ironically, when you stop underestimating or overestimating your path and simply walk it with integrity, your trajectory usually takes care of itself. The underestimation comes from the ego’s need for external validation; the progress comes from the soul’s commitment to the work.
How to Recalibrate: The "Trajectory Audit"
If you feel stuck, use these three tools to get an objective view of your path:
The “Skill Stack” Review: List five things you can do easily now that were difficult three years ago.
The Peer Feedback Loop: Ask a trusted mentor where they see you in two years. Their perspective is usually much higher than your own.
The 1% Journal: Document one small “win” per day. Over a month, these data points prove that you are moving upward, even when you don’t “feel” the altitude change.
Trust the Quiet Momentum
The reason why capable people often underestimate their own trajectory is rarely because they aren’t moving; it’s because they are the ones steering the ship. From the bridge of a massive vessel, you can’t always feel the speed at which you are crossing the ocean.
Stop looking for the sudden surge and start trusting the quiet momentum of your daily excellence. Your “True North” isn’t a destination you arrive at; it’s the direction you’ve been moving in all along.